Are 5 lakh jobs being created every month, Learn the truth of employment figures
The
Employees Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) and National Pension
System (NPS) have made the data open for the first time in their open
accounts. It is being said that this will provide relief to the central government on the employment front. On
the basis of open accounts in both organizations, there are indications
that between September 2017 and February 2018, 31 lakh new jobs of 18
to 25 years have been created, i.e. about five lakh jobs per month. Of these, 22 lakh jobs are from the organized sector. The signal is, because it is not right to assume these data as employment.
On the other hand, according to the Labor Bureau data, only 4.16 lakh jobs were created in the financial year 2017. At
the same time, the International Labor Association (ILO) has recently
conjectured that by 2019, the employment situation in India will be
miserable and 15 to 25 years of employment will be provided to the
youth, three times the number will remain unemployed. Let's know how the government is playing with employment figures.
Figures include jugglery
The EPFO and NPS data say that in the last six months, 18.5 lakh accounts of EPAO open and 3.5 lakh accounts of NPS are open and both are being introduced as new employment data. If the same person employs an account in EPFO and NPS, then two jobs are risked to be considered based on two accounts. Since the income tax of any employee is deducted at the institution itself, and many institutions have to announce the new fiscal year investment between September to February. In this case, accounts are opened in NPS in this period to save tax. Apart from this, a resident of India or NRI from 18 years to 60 years of age can also open an account in NPS. Therefore, NPS account does not mean new employment.
Multiple accounts of the same job
According to the information, accounts have not been included in these data for one year. However, there is no hope of fully revealing reliable figures. The reason for this is that between September and February, those who have changed jobs, they have more than one EPFO account. In spite of leaving the job, the interest earned in the EPFO account gets good interest for three years. Because of this, this money is not extracted for three years. In such a situation, there is full scope for duplication of mistake in the data being offered to the employment. These figures can be considered dependable only if the EPFO account remains same as the job replacement but it can be ensured that only one person in the country has the same EPFO account.
Notebook and help of GST
In India, a large part of the economy and employment (about 80 per cent) comes from the unorganized sector. Except some cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Chennai, the way of stay and employment is still in the unorganized sector far away from big cities. After the ban of Indian economy and after GST being implemented in November last year, the unorganized sector employees and entrepreneurs (including their employees) have come in the organized sector. For this reason, the employment in the unorganized sector so far has been shifted to the organized sector and it can not be right to put them in the category of employment generation.
Survey's technique is not trustworthy
There is also a question in the statistics game that how the data recorded in other services including the EPFO and NPS are far from the ground truth. An institution must have at least 20 employees to register in the EPFO. Apart from this, an employee's salary is more than 15 thousand rupees per month and he is registered in the EPFO service. Many companies provide employment for a short period of time, i.e. time-bound work is given on contracts for three months or six months. No technology has been adopted to separate these people from the EPFO service. In such a case, assuming all these as new jobs will also be considered as extending the data.
Will wait now
In this way, the accounts registered in the organized sector from the unorganized sector after the short-term employment and economic reforms are being introduced as new employment. It is OK to wait for some time now to know the reality of them. Since the NPS and EPFO data are now in the public sector, the next few quarters or half yearly analysis of the banana will have to be adjusted. Not only that, study of job statistics before the banquet can also bring new things out. After all, the real nature of employment in India can be realized.
Is it the government's move
Professor Pulak Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor of State Bank of India, Soumya Kanti Ghosh and IIT Bangalore had released a 33-page report regarding the data of EPFO and NPS before this year's budget. It was estimated to get 70 million jobs in 2017-18. Till then, the figures of EPFO and NPS were not in the public domain, and these two economists had also raised questions about achieving it. Now these figures have come in the public domain. Remind you that PM Narendra Modi had promised to provide 10 million jobs every year before the 2014 general elections, which has not been fulfilled once in the last four years. With the help of leaked figures, the report estimated that 70 lakh in the organized sector and 8 million in unorganized sector, that is, 15 million jobs generated annually. That is, the government received much help from this report.
Figures include jugglery
The EPFO and NPS data say that in the last six months, 18.5 lakh accounts of EPAO open and 3.5 lakh accounts of NPS are open and both are being introduced as new employment data. If the same person employs an account in EPFO and NPS, then two jobs are risked to be considered based on two accounts. Since the income tax of any employee is deducted at the institution itself, and many institutions have to announce the new fiscal year investment between September to February. In this case, accounts are opened in NPS in this period to save tax. Apart from this, a resident of India or NRI from 18 years to 60 years of age can also open an account in NPS. Therefore, NPS account does not mean new employment.
Multiple accounts of the same job
According to the information, accounts have not been included in these data for one year. However, there is no hope of fully revealing reliable figures. The reason for this is that between September and February, those who have changed jobs, they have more than one EPFO account. In spite of leaving the job, the interest earned in the EPFO account gets good interest for three years. Because of this, this money is not extracted for three years. In such a situation, there is full scope for duplication of mistake in the data being offered to the employment. These figures can be considered dependable only if the EPFO account remains same as the job replacement but it can be ensured that only one person in the country has the same EPFO account.
Notebook and help of GST
In India, a large part of the economy and employment (about 80 per cent) comes from the unorganized sector. Except some cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Bengaluru and Chennai, the way of stay and employment is still in the unorganized sector far away from big cities. After the ban of Indian economy and after GST being implemented in November last year, the unorganized sector employees and entrepreneurs (including their employees) have come in the organized sector. For this reason, the employment in the unorganized sector so far has been shifted to the organized sector and it can not be right to put them in the category of employment generation.
Survey's technique is not trustworthy
There is also a question in the statistics game that how the data recorded in other services including the EPFO and NPS are far from the ground truth. An institution must have at least 20 employees to register in the EPFO. Apart from this, an employee's salary is more than 15 thousand rupees per month and he is registered in the EPFO service. Many companies provide employment for a short period of time, i.e. time-bound work is given on contracts for three months or six months. No technology has been adopted to separate these people from the EPFO service. In such a case, assuming all these as new jobs will also be considered as extending the data.
Will wait now
In this way, the accounts registered in the organized sector from the unorganized sector after the short-term employment and economic reforms are being introduced as new employment. It is OK to wait for some time now to know the reality of them. Since the NPS and EPFO data are now in the public sector, the next few quarters or half yearly analysis of the banana will have to be adjusted. Not only that, study of job statistics before the banquet can also bring new things out. After all, the real nature of employment in India can be realized.
Is it the government's move
Professor Pulak Ghosh, Group Chief Economic Advisor of State Bank of India, Soumya Kanti Ghosh and IIT Bangalore had released a 33-page report regarding the data of EPFO and NPS before this year's budget. It was estimated to get 70 million jobs in 2017-18. Till then, the figures of EPFO and NPS were not in the public domain, and these two economists had also raised questions about achieving it. Now these figures have come in the public domain. Remind you that PM Narendra Modi had promised to provide 10 million jobs every year before the 2014 general elections, which has not been fulfilled once in the last four years. With the help of leaked figures, the report estimated that 70 lakh in the organized sector and 8 million in unorganized sector, that is, 15 million jobs generated annually. That is, the government received much help from this report.
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